Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
